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The first step is to identify what ML/TF risks exist for your business when providing designated services. As previously discussed, there are two risk types: business risk and regulatory risk. Business riskThe AML/CTF Rules state that a reporting entity must consider the risk posed by:
Customers:
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| Risk group: | Customers | |||
| Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Risk score | Treatment/Action |
| New customer (example only) |
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| Customer who brings in large amounts of used notes and/or small denominations (example only) |
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| Customer whose business is registered overseas with no Australian office (example only) |
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The use of this table will be continued in following sections.
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Measure the size & importance of risk:
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Having identified the risks involved, they need to be assessed or measured in terms of the chance (likelihood) they will occur and the severity or amount of loss or damage (impact) which may result if they do occur. The risk associated with an event is a combination of the chance (likelihood) that the event will occur and the seriousness of the damage (impact) it may do.
Therefore each risk element can be rated by:
To help assess the risks identified in the first stage of this process, we can apply the risk rating scales for likelihood (Table 2) and impact (Table 3) and from these get a level of risk or risk score using the risk matrix (Figure 2).
| LIKELIHOOD | X | IMPACT | = | RISK LEVEL/SCORE | ||
A likelihood scale refers to the potential of an ML/TF risk occurring in your business for the particular risk being assessed. Three levels of risk are shown in Table 2, but you can have as many as you believe are necessary.
Table 2: Likelihood scale
| Frequency | Likelihood of an ML/TF risk | ||
| Very likely | Almost certain: it will probably occur several times a year | ||
| Likely | High probability it will happen once a year | ||
| Unlikely | Unlikely, but not impossible | ||
An impact scale refers to the seriousness of the damage (or otherwise) which could occur should the event (risk) happen.
In assessing the possible impact or consequences, the assessment can be made from several viewpoints. Following is a list of ideas. It does not cover everything and it is not prescriptive.
Impact of an ML/TF risk could, depending on individual business circumstances, be rated or looked at from the point of view of:
Three levels of risk are shown in Table 3, but you can have as many as you believe are necessary.
Table 3: Impact scale
| Consequence | Impact - of an ML/TF risk | ||
| Major | Huge consequences - major damage or effect. Serious terrorist act or large-scale money laundering. | ||
| Moderate | Moderate level of money laundering or terrorism financing impact. | ||
| Minor | Minor or negligible consequences or effects. | ||
Use the risk matrix to combine LIKELIHOOD and IMPACT to obtain a risk score. The risk score may be used to aid decision making and help in deciding what action to take in view of the overall risk. How the risk score is derived can be seen from the risk matrix (Figure 2) and risk score table (Table 4) shown below. Four levels of risk or score are shown in Figure 2 and Table 4, but you can have as many as you believe are necessary.
Figure 2: Risk matrix
Threat level for ML/TF risk
| Very likely | Medium 2 |
High 3 |
Extreme 4 | |
| Likely | Low 1 |
Medium 2 |
High 3 | |
| Unlikely | Low 1 |
Low 1 |
Medium 2 | |
| What is the chance it will happen? | Minor | Moderate | Major | |
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Table 4: Risk score table
| Rating | Impact - of an ML/TF risk | ||
| 4 Extreme | Risk almost sure to happen and/or to have very dire consequences. Response: Do not allow transaction to occur or reduce the risk to acceptable level. | ||
| 3 High | Risk likely to happen and/or to have serious consequences. Response: Do not allow transaction until risk reduced. | ||
| 2 Medium | Possible this could happen and/or have moderate consequences. Response: May go ahead but preferably reduce risk. | ||
| 1 Low | Unlikely to happen and/or have minor or negligible consequences. Response: Okay to go ahead. | ||
Once threat levels and risk scores have been allocated they can be entered in the risk management worksheet (Table 5) next to the risk.
Table 5: Risk management worksheet - threat level and risk score
| Risk group: | Customers | |||
| Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Risk score | Treatment/Action |
| New customer (example only) |
Likely (example only) |
Moderate (example only |
2 (example only) |
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| Customer who brings in large amounts of used notes and/or small denominations (example only) |
Likely (example only) |
Major (example only) |
3 (example only) |
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| Customer whose business is registered overseas with no Australian office (example only) |
Very likely (example only) |
Major (example only) |
5 (example only) |
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Manage the business risks:
Manage the regulatory risks:
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This stage is about identifying and testing methods to manage the risks you have identified and assessed in the previous process. In doing this you will need to consider putting into place strategies, policies and procedures to help reduce (or treat) the risk. Examples of a risk reduction or treatment step are:
You could record this using Table 6.
Table 6: Risk management worksheet - risk treatment or action
| Risk group: | Customers | |||
| Risk | Likelihood | Impact | Risk score | Treatment/Action |
| New customer (example only) |
Likely (example only) |
Moderate (example only |
2 (example only) |
Standard ID check ID verification type X |
| Customer who brings in large amounts of used notes and/or small denominations (example only) |
Likely (example only) |
Major (example only) |
3 (example only) |
Non-standard ID check ID verification type X |
| Customer whose business is registered overseas with no Australian office (example only) |
Very likely (example only) |
Major (example only) |
5 (example only) |
Do not accept as customer |
Another way you can reduce the risk is to use a combination of risk groups to modify the overall risk of a transaction. You may choose to use a combination of your customer, product/service and country risk to modify an overall risk. For example, in the case of a remitter, for a low-risk customer you may decide to only use a bank account-to-bank account service (assessed as low risk by you) to a certain city/province (assessed as a high risk area by you) in a certain country (assessed as low risk by you).
It is important to remember that identifying, for example, a customer, transaction or country as high risk does not necessarily mean that money laundering or terrorism financing is involved. The opposite is also true: just because a customer or transaction is seen as low risk does not mean the customer or transaction in not involved in money laundering or terrorism financing. Experience and common sense should be applied to your risk management process.
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Monitor & review the risk plan:
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Keeping records and regular evaluation of your risk plan and AML/CTF program is essential. The risk management plan and AML/CTF program cannot remain static as risks change over time; for example, changes to your customer base, your products and services, your business practices and the law.
Once documented, your business should develop a method to regularly check on whether your AML/CTF program is working correctly and well. If not, you need to work out what needs to be improved and put changes in place. This will help keep your program effective and also meet the requirements of the AML/CTF Act.
The following tools or ideas can be useful in helping to manage risk. You can include them in the previous risk assessment process to better inform your decisions.
Risk appetite is the amount of risk a business is prepared to accept in pursuit of its business goals. Risk appetite can be an extra guide to your risk management strategy and can also help you deal with risks. It is usually expressed as an acceptable/unacceptable level of risk.
Some questions to ask are:
The risk matrix can be used to show the risk appetite of your business.
In a risk-based approach to AML/CTF the assessment of risk appetite is a judgement that must be made by the reporting business. It will be based on its business goals and strategies, and an assessment of the ML/TF risks it faces in providing the designated services to its chosen markets.
Figure 3: Sample risk matrix showing risk appetite
| Very likely | Acceptable Risk Medium 2 |
Unacceptable Risk High 3 |
Unacceptable Risk Extreme 4 | |
| Likely | Acceptable Risk Low 1 |
Acceptable Risk Medium 2 |
Unacceptable Risk High 3 | |
| Unlikely | Acceptable Risk Low 1 |
Acceptable Risk Low 1 |
Acceptable Risk Medium 2 | |
| What is the chance it will happen? | Minor | Moderate | Major | |
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In addition to defining your business's risk appetite, you can also define a level of variation to how you manage that risk. This is called risk tolerance, and it provides some flexibility whilst still keeping to the risk framework you have developed.
An example showing how risk appetite and risk tolerance interact follows.
| A remitter business has decided that generally the risk is unacceptable to remit money to a particular country. However, the remitter does have some risk tolerance. In this case the business will remit to this region provided that it is a bank to bank transaction only, the customer provides three verifiable customer identification documents and the transaction is signed off by a senior manager. |
1 International Organisation for Standardisation. ISO/IEC Guide 73 Risk management - Vocabulary - Guidelines for use in standards. Geneva: ISO, 2002.